The Value of A Draft Pick by Dan Haight

What is Analytics?

- Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge.


The search for objective knowledge about [hockey]

What are advanced stats?

  1. Corsi–Shots directed on goal minus shots directed on your own goal (proxy for possession)
  2. Qualcomp–how good is the opposition that a player typically lines up against (how a coach is using a player)
  3. Qualteam–how good are the teamatesa player typically lines up with
  4. PDO –a combination of team shooting percentage and save percentage when a player is on the ice (proxy for luck)
  5. Zone Start–percentage of offensive zone faceoffs when a player is on the ice
  6. Predicted Goals Scored–how many goals a player or team should have scored given shot location and an average goalie (attempts to remove luck from player performance)

What can it be used for

  • Player evaluation –offensive and defensive value, playing context
  • Team evaluation –tactics, tendencies, cap efficiency
  • Player negotiation
  • Training and preparation
  • Procurement and projection
  • Tactics


See the presentation below to learn more…