The 7 Deadly Sins Every GM Should Avoid by Marc Appleby –

Areas Covered

  • PowerScout research overview
  • The two major findings
  • The 7 deadly sins
  • A look at the Oilers this year
If we want players that help our team ‘win’, why don’t we measure them that way?- asked Terry

PowerScout analyzes hockey by focusing on the proven patterns for winning.

Using our key research findings, we create analytical and
technology solutions that help hockey managers & coaches at
every hockey level maximize assets and build winning teams.

  • Research by retired economist Terry Appleby
  •  Over 30 years of statistics research into hockey
  •  Over 14 years studying winning NHL teams
  •  20-yr member of Society of American Baseball Research

Sin #1:

Overestimating the difference in value between average and top-tier goalies

Sin #6:

Overestimating the effectiveness of building a team’s attack through the wing position

Learn more from the presentation below

 

The Evolution of Hockey Statistics by Bruce McCurdy

Scoring chances

A chance is counted any time a team directs a shot cleanly on-net from within home-plate. Shots on goal and misses are counted, but blocked shots are not (unless the player who blocks the shot is “acting like a goaltender”). Generally speaking, we are more generous with the boundaries of home-plate if there is dangerous puck movement immediately preceding the scoring chance, or if the scoring chance is screened. If you want to get a visual handle on home-plate,

Neilson Numbers

  • Based on ideas of Roger Neilson
  • Assignment of individual responsibility on scoring chances for and against
  • Requires an extra degree of qualitative judgement over and above deciding whether a scoring chance has occurred
  • Eliminates false positives/negatives, however individual numbers don’t reconcile to team totals
  • Fewer recording errors than on-ice scoring chances as players are identified as part of the process
  • Same system can be used to assign unofficial assists on GF or errors on GA
  • Reliant on a knowledgeable scorer, but as with other scoring chance systems, would work better if 3 or 5 scorers worked independently, then pooled results

Learn more form the presentation below:

The Value of A Draft Pick by Dan Haight

What is Analytics?

- Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge.

 

The search for objective knowledge about [hockey]

What are advanced stats?

  1. Corsi–Shots directed on goal minus shots directed on your own goal (proxy for possession)
  2. Qualcomp–how good is the opposition that a player typically lines up against (how a coach is using a player)
  3. Qualteam–how good are the teamatesa player typically lines up with
  4. PDO –a combination of team shooting percentage and save percentage when a player is on the ice (proxy for luck)
  5. Zone Start–percentage of offensive zone faceoffs when a player is on the ice
  6. Predicted Goals Scored–how many goals a player or team should have scored given shot location and an average goalie (attempts to remove luck from player performance)

What can it be used for

  • Player evaluation –offensive and defensive value, playing context
  • Team evaluation –tactics, tendencies, cap efficiency
  • Player negotiation
  • Training and preparation
  • Procurement and projection
  • Tactics

 

See the presentation below to learn more…